Prime Lending Rate

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Headline Inflation

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GDP Growth (Q)

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Unemployment Rate

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Interest Rates Trend

Inflation Components

GDP by Sector

Economic Indicators Summary

Interest Rates Analysis

Forecasting and historical analysis of key interest rate indicators

12-Month Forecast - Prime Lending Rate

Model Type: ARIMA(2,1,1)
RMSE: 0.42%
MAE: 0.35%
R²: 0.94

Inflation Analysis

CPI, Headline, Core, and Food inflation forecasting

12-Month Inflation Forecast - Headline

Model Type: SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)[12]
RMSE: 0.68%
MAE: 0.52%
MAPE: 2.8%

Inflation Components Comparison

Year-over-year percentage change

GDP Analysis

Quarterly and annual GDP forecasting with sectoral breakdown

8-Quarter GDP Growth Forecast

Model Type: ARIMA(2,1,2)
RMSE: ₦450B
R²: 0.92
AIC: 245.3

GDP by Sector (Quarterly)

Sectoral Growth Rates

Labor Market Analysis

Unemployment and underemployment forecasting

4-Quarter Labor Market Forecast

Model Type: Multiple Linear Regression
R²: 0.87
Adj. R²: 0.84
RMSE: 1.2%

Unemployment vs Underemployment

Labor Force Trends

Total Labor Force 85.2M
Employed 56.8M (66.7%)
Unemployed 28.4M (33.3%)
Underemployed 17.0M (20.0%)
Youth Unemployment 42.5%
Labor Participation Rate 54.7%

Scenario Analysis

Stress testing and what-if analysis for economic planning

Compare Economic Scenarios

Select scenarios to compare their impact on key macroeconomic indicators

GDP Growth Comparison

Projected annual GDP growth across scenarios

Inflation Rate Comparison

Projected inflation rates across scenarios

Exchange Rate Impact

NGN/USD exchange rate projections

Key Indicators Radar

Multi-dimensional scenario comparison

Current Trajectory

Baseline Scenario

Current economic trajectory with moderate growth and stable policies

External Factors
Oil Price (Brent): $75/barrel
Exchange Rate: ₦750/USD
Global Growth: 3.2%
Domestic Indicators
GDP Growth: 3.5%
Inflation Rate: 18.0%
Unemployment: 33.0%
Key Impacts
  • Moderate credit growth (12-15%)
  • Stable fiscal position
  • Gradual infrastructure development
Best Case

Optimistic Scenario

Favorable economic conditions with oil price recovery and increased foreign investment

External Factors
Oil Price (Brent): $90/barrel
Exchange Rate: ₦700/USD
FDI Inflow: +20%
Domestic Indicators
GDP Growth: 5.0%
Inflation Rate: 15.0%
Unemployment: 28.0%
Key Impacts
  • Strong credit expansion (18-22%)
  • Improved fiscal revenues
  • Accelerated infrastructure projects
Downside Risk

Pessimistic Scenario

Adverse economic conditions with oil price shock and capital flight pressures

External Factors
Oil Price (Brent): $55/barrel
Exchange Rate: ₦850/USD
Capital Outflow: +15%
Domestic Indicators
GDP Growth: 1.5%
Inflation Rate: 25.0%
Unemployment: 38.0%
Key Impacts
  • Credit contraction (5-8%)
  • Fiscal pressures increase
  • Infrastructure delays
Extreme Risk

Stress Test Scenario

Extreme scenario for comprehensive risk assessment and contingency planning

External Factors
Oil Price (Brent): $40/barrel
Exchange Rate: ₦1,000/USD
Banking Crisis: Yes
Domestic Indicators
GDP Growth: -1.0%
Inflation Rate: 35.0%
Unemployment: 45.0%
Key Impacts
  • Severe credit freeze (-10%)
  • Fiscal crisis likely
  • Emergency measures required

Detailed Scenario Comparison

Side-by-side comparison of key economic indicators

Indicator Baseline Optimistic Pessimistic Stress Test
GDP Growth Rate 3.5% 5.0% 1.5% -1.0%
Inflation Rate 18.0% 15.0% 25.0% 35.0%
Unemployment Rate 33.0% 28.0% 38.0% 45.0%
Exchange Rate (₦/USD) 750 700 850 1,000
Oil Price ($/barrel) 75 90 55 40
Credit Growth 12-15% 18-22% 5-8% -10%
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) -3.5% -2.0% -5.5% -8.0%